With little democratic resistance, Hillary Clinton is virtually assured the democratic nomination. Her opposition consists of radical Bernie Sanders and former Maryland governor Martin O'Malley. Sander's claim to fame is that he is a socialist. According to South Carolina Senator Lindsay Graham, "Sanders spent his honeymoon in Moscow and still hasn't come back". Martin O'Malley may be best known as the mayor of Baltimore in season 4 of The Wire. Senator Lincoln Chafee ran on a platform of converting the U.S. to the metric system. Moderate candidate Jim Webb may have realized he was in the wrong party during the October 13, 2015 CNN Democratic Debate when his response to the question, "Which enemy are you most proud of?" was greeted with deafening silence. Webb's answered, "I'd have to say, the enemy soldier that threw the grenade that wounded me, but he's not around right now to talk to". Both Chafee and Webb dropped out of the race shortly after the debate. Hillary not only faces token primary competition she also has both print and television media on her side.

While Donald Trump has been leading in most polls for the last four months, the Republicans best chance at the presidency might be a ticket of Marco Rubio and John Kasich. This tandem would likely win all of the red states that republican traditionally carry plus the key swing states of Florida and Ohio. In the 2000 election George W. Bush won the election based on his razor close victory in Florida. In 2004 he was able to defeat John Kerry by holding on to Ohio. In the past two elections, President Obama carried both of these states by close margins.

The Republican establishment is in a pickle with regards to Mr. Trump. If Trump wins the nomination he will most likely lose the election because he will not have the support of the party. Trump has alienated nearly the entire field of candidates. His off the cuff statements have caused fellow republicans to distance themselves from him. This was most evident when Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan was quick to condemn Trump's recent speech on preventing Muslims from entering the country saying, "this is not conservatism". Others were quick to follow suit. Pennsylvania Congressman Patrick Meehan, Charley Dent, and Ryan Costello canceled a Pennsylvania republican fund raiser in New York because Donald Trump is headlining the event. Senator Pat Toomey also pulled out of the event. Long time donor Fred Anton, president of the Pennsylvania Manufacturing Association has also stated that he will not attend. Former Pennsylvania governor Tom Ridge said that he will not support Donald Trump under any circumstance. I'm sure we could assume the same position from Senator John Mcain.

While Trump is not feeling the effects of this backlash at the moment he will as candidates from the overcrowded republic field starts to dwindle. Trump has a solid 25% block that seems to stick with him no matter what he says. News flash to Paul Ryan: Trump is not a conservative and his supporters don't care. The problem for Trump will be as the field shrinks and the Republican establishment backs the next strongest candidate. It will be interesting to see how Trump reacts to a loss.

In the first debate all of the republican candidates were asked to raise their hands if they would support their competitors should they gain the nomination. All but Trump raised their hands. By the second debate Trump had acquiesced and pledged to support his competitors if he is treated "fairly". Interesting that "The Donald" left himself some wiggle room to run as a third party candidate. Recently John Kasich said that he will need to reconsider supporting Trump despite the pledge he made in the first debate. Trump could justify running as a third party candidate based on Kasich reneging on his pledge to support the Republican nominee.

Iowa is notoriously unpredictable in presidential primaries. In 1976 an unknown peanut farmer from Plains Georgia upset the field and won the Iowa caucuses. George H. Bush upset Ronald Reagan in 1980. Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum won Iowa in 2008 and 2012 respectfully. With Ted Cruz surging in the polls, the possibility exists for history to repeat itself. What would happen to the mystique of Trump should he lose in Iowa?

In Donald Trump's mind he has never lost at anything. He frequently points out to his competitors that he has led in every poll. His ego might not take too kindly to losing in the only poll that matters, the one that is held by the electorate. In this case he is likely to run as a third party candidate easily surpassing the 18% popular vote yielded by H. Ross Perot in 1992 but dividing the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election. Thus giving the 2016 presidency to Hillary Clinton.